Por que o Bitcoin está perto da máxima histórica em reais – enquanto ainda está bem longe do recorde em dólares
Por conta da forte desvalorização do real contra o dólar e diante das altas da criptomoeda, desempenho do Bitcoin no Brasil é ainda melhor que no exterior
Desde o choque de março, com o estouro da pandemia do coronavírus, o Bitcoin engatou um movimento de recuperação, ainda que gradual e antes de qualquer mercado tradicional, já havia deixado a pandemia para trás, ainda em abril.
Entre maio e junho, a maior criptomoeda do mundo andou praticamente de lado, em meio também ao halving, evento que cortou pela metade a oferta de novos bitcoins e que no médio prazo tende a valorizar bastante a moeda digital, segundo analistas. Porém, a partir de julho, uma forte alta teve início.
E se, de um lado, os investidores de Bitcoin ao redor do mundo estão animados com a valorização da moeda digital, que superou os US$ 12 mil e bateu seu maior valor em mais de um ano, os brasileiros têm ainda mais motivos para comemorar: por aqui, a cotação se aproxima da máxima histórica, em R$ 70 mil.

Mas o que explica este descolamento entre os valores do Bitcoin em reais e em dólares? Segundo especialistas consultados pelo InfoMoney, o câmbio entre a moeda brasileira e americana é fator importante para justificar o recorde por aqui.
Mayra Siqueira, gerente da exchange Binance no Brasil, lembra que em 2017, quando o ativo bateu sua máxima histórica em torno de US$ 20 mil, o dólar no Brasil era cotado em cerca de R$ 3,30. Desde então, tanto a criptomoeda quando o real perderam valor contra a divisa americana.

Nesta quarta-feira (19), o Bitcoin é cotado a US$ 11.770 (cerca de 40% abaixo de sua máxima histórica), enquanto o dólar no Brasil está em R$ 5,50. No acumulado do ano, a moeda digital registra uma valorização de 65% em dólares, ao passo que a moeda americana subiu 37% contra o real, deixando a divisa brasileira entre as piores do mundo.
Apesar de estar próximo de sua máxima, Siqueira destaca que o investidor precisa ter cuidado. “Essa região de preço é muito importante, mas possui uma forte força vendedora, podendo, por exemplo, ser o momento das pessoas que compraram na alta de 2017 iniciarem o fechamento de suas posições no ativo”, explica ela.

Diante disso, é possível que o Bitcoin tenha bastante dificuldade de superar a sua máxima em reais, de R$ 69.703. E, por enquanto, o que se vê é exatamente isso: na segunda-feira (17), a criptomoeda chegou aos R$ 68 mil – mas, desde então, tem registrado queda. Nesta quarta, ela está na casa de R$ 65.200.
A gerente da Binance também ressalta que o volume de negociação da moeda digital em reais segue bem abaixo das médias do pico histórico em 2017, o que, segundo ela, indica um momento de otimismo dos investidores.
Para os próximos meses, Ricardo Da Ros, country manager da exchange Ripio, acredita que o cenário seja ainda mais positivo para o Bitcoin, que pode se favorecer de um cenário onde os estímulos monetários serão reduzidos ao redor do mundo com a melhora da crise.

Ele lembra que o Federal Reserve (como é conhecido o banco central dos EUA) já injetou muito dinheiro na economia e reduziu a taxa de juros para próximo de zero, movimento que ajudou na alta das bolsas. Porém, isso deve mudar principalmente após as eleições americanas de novembro.
“Essa política de inflar o estoque de dólares tende a ser revertida para não acelerar a destruição do valor da moeda – independentemente de qual partido vença as eleições. Quando isso acontecer, os mercados podem ter uma forte correção. No Brasil, isso causaria uma desvalorização no real devido à fuga de liquidez internacional para ativos de segurança em seus países de origem, por exemplo”, explica Das Ros.
Se isso ocorrer, ele afirma que seria um cenário duplamente favorável ao Bitcoin: “como reserva de valor de baixa correlação com mercados tradicionais, a criptomoeda tende a atrair parte dessa liquidez que estaria abandonando o mercado de ações. E como hedge cambial, ela protege os investidores da desvalorização do real”.

Ele destaca ainda que, por sua descorrelação com ativos tradicionais e por uma diversificação de carteira, mesmo que o cenário econômico não siga o que ele apontou, ainda faz sentido o investidor ter um pouco de exposição à criptomoeda.
Diante disso, Das Ros acredita que o cenário segue bastante positivo para o Bitcoin em 2021, com “potencial de ter novamente a maior valorização do ano quando comparado a outros ativos”.
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