Impulsionado por auxílio emergencial, Bolsonaro quer conquistar o Nordeste.

Montado em uma égua e com chapéu de couro na cabeça, Jair Bolsonaro levou seus fãs ao delírio ao simular um autêntico nordestino em sua visita a São Raimundo Nonato, no Piauí, na última quinta-feira (30). Mais que inaugurar obras, a ação de Bolsonaro teve clima eleitoral e reflete um momento em que a aprovação do presidente começa, pela primeira vez, a dar sinais de elevação entre os mais pobres —embora siga estável ou em queda entre as classes mais ricas.

A explicação parece simples: o impacto do pagamento do auxílio emergencial, que atingiu 43% dos lares brasileiros. Entre os mais pobres (até 2 salários mínimos), em julho do ano passado Bolsonaro tinha 27% de aprovação bom ou ótimo, e agora são 29%, segundo o Datafolha. Já entre os que têm renda acima de 10 salários mínimos houve queda de 52% para 34% no mesmo período. Apesar de avançar entre as classes mais baixas, a margem é pequena, e pensando nos eleitores do Nordeste, há muitos votos a ganhar se o presidente pensa em reeleição.

“O Nordeste é, desde a eleição, a região onde [Bolsonaro] tem mais dificuldade em conseguir apoio, e mesmo a partir do benefício, com o crescimento entre os mais pobres, [na região] isso não fica claro”, avalia Mauro Paulino, diretor do Datafolha. No Nordeste, a aprovação do presidente em relação à pesquisa anterior, em maio, caiu de 29% para 27% —que “tende mais a estabilidade do que a um aumento”, diz Paulino—, enquanto a reprovação saltou de 48% para 52%. “Nesse caso de reprovação, em abril do ano passado esse índice era de 43%, e temos uma tendência de subida”, destaca.

O PresidenteJair Bolsonaro é recebido com festa em um evento na Bahia

Metade dos beneficiários do Bolsa Família está no Nordeste.

A visita de Bolsonaro a Piauí e Bahia evidencia o aceno aos mais pobres. Das 14 milhões de famílias beneficiárias do programa Bolsa Família, metade vive no Nordeste. Ainda na região, estão 58,9% dos lares que receberam auxílio emergencial, segundo dados da PNAD (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios) Covid-19, do IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). A investida do presidente vai em direção à força do petismo na região: os nove governadores eleitos em 2018 eram do PT ou foram apoiados pelo partido. Foi lá também a única região do país onde Bolsonaro perdeu os dois turnos. “Os pobres do Nordeste pensam bem diferente de outras regiões, especialmente em relação à lembrança que têm do governo Lula, dos governos petistas. Há uma resistência natural do nordestino, especialmente entre os mais pobres”, diz Paulino.

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Líder do governo no Senado vê Bolsonaro em ascensão.

No núcleo bolsonarista, a certeza é de que o presidente já está aumentado a popularidade na região e vai ainda conquistar muitos nordestinos até 2022. “Ele já está ganhando [popularidade], sobretudo quando vemos, por exemplo, pesquisas de cidades isoladas, como em Jaboatão dos Guararapes [região Metropolitana do Recife], onde ele já tem aprovação maior que o governador [Paulo Câmara-PSB]”, diz o senador Fernando Bezerra Coelho (MDB-PE), líder do governo no Senado. Coelho aposta que o lançamento do programa de renda básica, associado a um investimento na área hídrica na região, fará o governo ganhar popularidade.

O presidente Jair Bolsonaro vista o parque nacional da Serra da capivara em Piauí

“A grande bandeira de Bolsonaro na campanha era ampliar os programas de irrigação, e eles serão retomados, assim como teremos a conclusão de obras hídricas como a transposição, Cinturão da Águas no Ceará, entre outras. São obras vultosas, e o governo terá a possibilidade de concluir, e associado a um forte programa programa de irrigação e o Renda Brasil, o governo vai ser percebido como um governo mais eficiente e mais inclusivo [que foram os governos do PT]”, diz Coelho, que também foi ministro no governo Dilma Rousseff. Para Coelho, o momento é positivo para o governo, que vem consolidando sua base no Congresso, com a aproximação com o Centrão, e assim poderá aprovar reformas e projetos. Sempre com um olho na região. “As pessoas começam a perceber que ele tem um projeto para mais do que quatro anos, por isso cada vez mais o presidente faz viagens visitando obras, vendo as realidades e se aproximando do povo. A ideia é que a cada 15, 30 dias ele esteja no Nordeste.”

Para líder da oposição, Bolsonaro não “mostrou ao que veio”

Para o senador Humberto Costa (PT-PE), líder da oposição no Senado, a disputa pelo eleitor nordestino não será fácil para Bolsonaro. “O Nordeste recebeu um tratamento diferenciado nos governos desse campo popular, encabeçado por Lula, Dilma e outras forças de esquerda. Isso deixou marcas, e não é só Bolsa Família, mas um conjunto de ações em abastecimento de água, industrialização, obras de infraestrutura da região, universidades. Foram coisas muito marcantes”, lembra. Costa avalia que o primeiro ano de Bolsonaro não representou qualquer avanço para o Nordeste, que ainda sofreu com cortes em políticas sociais, como do programa de cisternas. “Diria que nesse ano e meio ele não disse ao que veio ao Nordeste, pelo contrário: ele se envolveu em casos de discriminação com o nordestino”, explica.

A aposta do presidente com o Renda Brasil, diz Costa, seria justamente para tentar conquistar apoio das classes mais pobres, o que atingiria em especial a região. “Eu não tenho nenhuma dúvida disso. Ele era contra o auxílio emergencial; depois propôs que fosse de R$ 200, e o Congresso elevou para R$ 600 até R$ 1.200. Então ele resolveu surfar naquilo que não foi iniciativa dele. Me parece que ele descobriu que pode ter nesse segmento um filão para estancar a perda de popularidade”, analisa. Humberto Costa ainda lembra ainda que o PT apresentou uma proposta para ampliar o Bolsa Família, que prevê a criação de um imposto para grandes fortunas e cobrança de taxa para lucros e dividendos, carimbando a arrecadação para o pagamento do “Mais Bolsa Família.”

“Pelo que está sendo discutido, esse valor para cada família não ficaria abaixo de R$ 500”, diz. Lulismo e bolsonarismo Cientista político e estudioso do lulismo no Nordeste, Adriano Oliveira acredita que um programa de transferência de renda que venha a substituir o Bolsa Família e ampliar o repasse aos beneficiários pode, sim, ampliar a aprovação de Bolsonaro na região — já que os dois fenômenos sociais teriam a mesma origem econômica. “Se essa renda for instituída, e consequentemente atingir fortemente a população nordestina, certamente o presidente do Bolsonaro crescerá em popularidade”, afirma. Ele lembra que o que proporcionou a existência do lulismo na região foi justamente a força do programa Bolsa Família, somado a outras ações ligadas às políticas sociais. “Isso, claro, associado a uma agenda baseada no aumento do consumo e do crédito. Isso influenciou muitos nordestinos, em particular das classes C e D”, explica.

Por Erasto Correia

Fonte: Carlos Madeiro colaborador do UOL

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