Pode haver 36 civilizações inteligentes em nossa galáxia, diz estudo
Como os primeiros exploradores mapeando os continentes do nosso globo, os astrônomos estão ocupados mapeando a estrutura espiral de nossa galáxia, a Via Láctea. Os cientistas calcularam que poderia haver um mínimo de 36 civilizações inteligentes.
Até hoje, a Terra se mostrou única em sua capacidade de hospedar a vida no universo, levando-nos a questionar se estamos realmente sozinhos.
Talvez não estejamos.
De acordo com um novo estudo, poderia haver pelo menos 36 civilizações inteligentes ativas e comunicantes em nossa Via Láctea. No entanto, devido ao tempo e à distância, talvez nunca saibamos se elas existem mesmo ou já existiram. O estudo foi publicado em 15 de junho no The Astrophysical Journal.
Pesquisas foram baseadas na equação de Drake, escrita pelo astrônomo e astrofísico norte-americano, Frank Drake, em 1961. “Ele desenvolveu uma equação que, em princípio, pode ser usada para calcular quantas civilizações com Comunicação Extraterrestre Inteligente (CETI, na sigla em inglês) podem existir na galáxia”, escreveram os autores em estudo.
“No entanto, muitos de seus termos são desconhecidos e outros métodos devem ser usados para calcular o número provável de civilizações comunicantes.”
Para superar essas lacunas, os cientistas da Universidade de Nottingham, na Inglaterra, desenvolveram sua própria abordagem.
“A principal diferença entre nosso cálculo e os anteriores com base na equação de Drake, é que fazemos suposições muito simples sobre como a vida se desenvolveu”, afirmou Christopher Conselice, coautor do estudo e professor de astrofísica da Universidade de Nottingham.
“Uma de nossas suposições é que a vida se forma de maneira científica – ou seja, se as condições certas forem cumpridas, a vida se formará. Isso evita respostas impossíveis, como ‘que fração dos planetas na zona habitável de uma estrela formará a vida?’ e ‘que fração da vida evoluirá para uma vida inteligente?’, pois elas não são passíveis de resposta até que realmente detectemos a vida, o que ainda não fizemos”.
Os pesquisadores desenvolveram o que chamam de Princípio Copernicano Astrobiológico para estabelecer limites fracos e fortes de vida na galáxia. As equações incluem a história da formação das estrelas em nossa galáxia e a idade das estrelas, o conteúdo metálico delas e a probabilidade de hospedarem planetas semelhantes à Terra em suas zonas habitáveis onde a vida pode se formar.
A zona habitável inclui planetas que, por estarem na posição “certa” em relação às estrelas, não são nem muito quentes nem muito frios, e possuem água em estado líquido – condições favoráveis para que a vida como a conhecemos se desenvolva em sua superfície.
As zonas habitáveis são primordiais, mas orbitar uma estrela estável e silenciosa por bilhões de anos pode ser ainda mais importante, de acordo com Conselice.
“Os dois limites astrobiológicos copernicanos são que vida inteligente se forma em menos de 5 bilhões de anos [limite fraco], ou após cerca de 5 bilhões de anos [limite forte] – um período semelhante à Terra, onde uma civilização comunicante se formou após 4,5 bilhões de anos”, disse o coautor Tom Westby, professor assistente do Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade de Nottingham.
De acordo com os pesquisadores, o Limite Astrobiológico Copernicano Forte diz que a vida deve se formar entre 4,5 e 5,5 bilhões de anos, como na Terra, enquanto o Limite Fraco determina que um planeta leva pelo menos 4 bilhões de anos para formar vida, mas pode se formar a qualquer momento depois disso.
“Ele é chamado de Princípio Copernicano Astrobiológico porque pressupõe que nossa existência não é especial”, afirmou Conselice. “Ou seja, se as condições em que a vida inteligente se desenvolveu na Terra fossem replicadas em algum outro lugar da galáxia, a vida inteligente também surgiria ali de maneira semelhante”.
Com base nos cálculos usando o Limite Astrobiológico Copernicano Forte, os cientistas determinaram que há provavelmente 36 civilizações inteligentes ativas e comunicantes em nossa galáxia. Isso pressupõe que a vida se forma da mesma forma que na Terra – que é o nosso único entendimento sobre esse fenômeno. De acordo com Westby, o estudo também prevê que o conteúdo metálico das estrelas que hospedam esses planetas seja igual ao do nosso sol, que é rico em metais.
Os pesquisadores acreditam que o limite mais forte é o mais provável porque “ainda permite a vida inteligente se formar dentro de um bilhão de anos depois do que ocorreu na Terra, o que parece bastante tempo”, disse Conselice.
Outra suposição dessas civilizações em potencial é que elas estão divulgando sua presença de alguma forma por meio de sinais.
Atualmente, produzimos apenas sinais como transmissões de rádio de satélites e televisões por um curto período de tempo. Nossa civilização “tecnológica” tem cerca de cem anos. Imagine, então, outras 36 civilizações fazendo a mesma coisa em toda a galáxia.
Os pesquisadores ficaram surpresos que o número fosse tão pequeno – mas não zero. “Isso é incrível”, opinou Conselice.
Embora este estudo tenha analisado apenas nossa galáxia, a distância é um fator inibidor. Os pesquisadores calcularam que a distância média entre essas civilizações em potencial seria igual a cerca de 17 mil anos-luz. Detectar esses sinais ou enviar comunicações usando a tecnologia atual levaria tanto tempo que seria quase impossível notá-los.
“Espera-se que a busca por vida inteligente produza uma observação positiva se o tempo de vida médio da comunicação de inteligência extraterrestre dentro de nossa galáxia for de 3.060 anos. Ou seja, nossa civilização comunicante aqui na Terra precisará persistir por 6.120 anos além do advento da tecnologia de rádio de longo alcance (ocorrido 100 anos atrás) antes de realizarmos uma comunicação bidirecional [busca por inteligência extraterrestre].”
Mais amplas, as suposições do cenário Copernicano Fraco estabelecem que haveria um mínimo de 928 civilizações se comunicando em nossa galáxia hoje, o que significaria que poderiam estar mais próximas de nós. Nesse caso, levaríamos apenas cerca de 700 anos para fazer uma detecção.
“Está claro que o tempo de vida de uma civilização comunicante é o aspecto principal desse problema, e seriam necessárias vidas muito longas para a comunicação com civilizações contemporâneas ativas”, escreveram os pesquisadores em estudo.
E depois há a questão da sobrevivência. Outras civilizações em potencial seriam tão duradouras quanto a da Terra?
Se a busca por essa vida não revelar nada a uma distância de 7 mil anos-luz, os pesquisadores sugerem que isso pode significar uma de duas coisas.
Primeiro, pode sugerir que a vida útil dessas civilizações é menor que 2 mil anos – o que pode significar que a nossa está chegando ao fim.
Segundo, poderia sugerir que a vida na Terra é única e ocorre em um processo muito mais aleatório do que os limites astrobiológicos copernicanos estabelecidos no estudo.
Nem todos os fatores ou limitações foram incluídos no estudo, como o fato de que as pequenas estrelas anãs M, semelhantes à Terra, possam estar em órbita e liberar radiação nociva “que tornaria a vida difícil de existir” – o que é uma questão debatida. As estrelas anãs M são comuns em nossa galáxia e conhecidas por hospedar planetas rochosos do tamanho da Terra.
Em seguida, os pesquisadores olharão além de nossa galáxia para ver se a vida pode existir fora de seus limites.
“Nossa nova pesquisa sugere que a busca por civilizações extraterrestres inteligentes não apenas revela a existência de como a vida se forma, mas também nos dá pistas de quanto tempo nossa própria civilização durará”, disse Conselice.
“Se acharmos que a vida inteligente é comum, isso revelaria que nossa civilização poderia existir por muito mais do que algumas centenas de anos; de forma alternativa, se descobrirmos que não há civilizações ativas em nossa galáxia, é um mau sinal para nossa própria existência no longo prazo. Ao procurar por uma vida extraterrestre inteligente – mesmo que não encontremos nada – estamos descobrindo nosso próprio futuro e destino”.
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