Lenda da bolsa, Luiz Alves, fundador da Alaska, vê Ibovespa de volta ao topo em 2021
Luiz Alves Paes de Barros fez sua fortuna comprando enquanto os outros fugiam. No pânico dos mercados neste ano, a oportunidade foi tamanha que ele chegou a ficar sem dinheiro de tanto comprar.
Aos 72 anos, o fundador da Alaska Investimentos embarcou em uma onda de compra de ações no primeiro trimestre, à medida que os mercados globais sofriam e o Ibovespa (IBOV) despencava, chegando a uma queda de 58% no ano em dólar.
Embora Barros reconheça agora que talvez ele tenha começado “um pouco mais cedo” do que deveria, ele diz que seu apetite por ações brasileiras segue inabalado.
Depois que o dinheiro disponível acabou, por volta da segunda metade de março, “recebi um dinheiro extra de um título que venceu e comecei tudo de novo”, disse Barros em uma entrevista em São Paulo.
Apostar em nomes que ninguém quer é uma constante na carreira de Barros. Magazine Luiza (MGLU3), uma das mais bem sucedidas compras da Alaska, já subiu mais de 50.000% desde a mínima no fim de 2015, por volta de quando a gestora começou a se posicionar na empresa.
Jogadas como essa ajudaram Barros e os co-gestores Henrique Bredda e Ney Miyamoto a transformar o Alaska Black Master em um dos fundos com melhor desempenho do país em cinco anos.
O período de quarentena por conta do coronavírus e o caos do mercado que se seguiu puseram essa performance à prova.
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O Alaska Black caiu 50% desde o início do ano, com desempenho inferior a grande maioria de seus pares no Brasil. Em março, o fundo teve o pior mês desde sua criação em 2010.
Apostas alavancadas em taxas de juros e no câmbio foram as principais culpadas, bem como a queda do mercado acionário local.
Enquanto mercados como o dos EUA já recuperaram a maior parte de suas perdas, uma combinação de turbulência política e preocupações fiscais deixaram o Brasil para trás.
O Ibovespa ainda cai 33% no ano, em moeda estrangeira, a terceira pior performance entre os principais índices ao redor do mundo.
Barros, cuja família possuía usinas de cana-de-açúcar, já foi trader de commodities e sócio de Luis Stuhlberger. O fundo Alaska Poland, do qual ele, sua esposa e filho são os três únicos cotistas, mergulhou de um pico em meados de janeiro de R$ 4,25 bilhões em ativos para R$ 3,2 bilhões agora, segundo dados compilados pela Bloomberg.
Ainda assim, Barros diz que não está abalado. Há oportunidade na turbulência.
“Não é para ninguém ficar preocupado porque não tem bicho-papão escondido desta vez”, disse. Como a razão da crise é clara, ele afirma que é mais fácil agir e ainda está comprando, embora de uma maneira que lhe dê mais liquidez. “Vamos perder um ano no mundo. Isso não sei se é um grande problema. Acho que não.”
Antes conhecido como o “bilionário anônimo”, Barros hoje está longe do anonimato: cerca de cinco anos depois que a Alaska começou a gerir recursos de terceiros, a empresa com sede em São Paulo se tornou um dos gestores de ativos mais populares do país, com mais de 200.000 investidores e R$ 12,8 bilhões em ativos sob gestão.
Uma rara palestra pública de Barros no ano passado atraiu 10.000 participantes. Bredda, co-gestor do Alaska Black, é uma espécie de guru no chamado FinTwit brasileiro, com mais de 156.000 seguidores.
Apesar da queda brutal dos ativos no Brasil, Barros está confiante de que as ações irão se recuperar, embora reconheça que a recente subida dos preços em velocidade de foguete possa ter ido longe demais, rápido demais.
“Para falar a verdade, vocês vão ficar um pouco tristes: a crise ainda vai demorar bastante. Não terminou nada”, disse Barros em uma transmissão ao vivo recente, argumentando que as ações brasileiras devem ter alguns solavancos pela frente depois de uma alta de cerca de 50% em relação à mínima em março. “Não é para ninguém ficar triste, porque faz parte do jogo a bolsa cair um pouco agora. ”
A gestora está apostando em uma recuperação completa já no próximo ano.
“A gente está tentando montar estruturas em nossos fundos que podem dar muito dinheiro se mercado recuperar até meados de 2022. Isso embute uma expectativa de ser antes até”, disse Bredda na entrevista.
Barros, que durante a conversa via Zoom usava um fundo sobreposto de folhas verdes tropicais, brincou com seu sócio: “Você é obrigado a ser um pouco pessimista. Eu? Acho que já no meio de 2021 já passou do topo em que esteve. Por isso que eu tenho falado menos, para não induzir ninguém ao erro.”
O fundo já teve um retorno de 32% em cerca de um mês. Empresas como a Vale ou a Suzano verão os resultados se recuperando muito mais rápido do que a economia como um todo, disse Bredda.
Com os casos de coronavírus explodindo e o Brasil prestes a registrar sua pior contração econômica da história, é difícil conciliar o otimismo da Alaska com a realidade.
“Existe o mundo da bolsa e existe o da economia, o Brasil real,” disse Bredda. “A bagunça política não tem nada a ver com bolsa. Porque se entender de Brasil fosse algo muito importante para investir em ações brasileiras, o Luiz Alves seria o maior brasilianista da história do país.”
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