Por que estes gestores estão apostando na queda do dólar
Após se aproximar da marca dos R$ 6,00 em maio, moeda americana já negocia abaixo de R$ 5,00 no início de junho
SÃO PAULO – Com alta da ordem de 23% no acumulado do ano, o dólar tem se mantido fortalecido em meio à crise provocada pelo coronavírus, diante do aumento das tensões globais. A corrida por ativos mais seguros em momentos de incerteza é esperada, ainda que, no Brasil, o movimento de desvalorização cambial tenha sido mais expressivo que em outros países e tenha levado o dólar a se aproximar do nível de R$ 6,00.
Nas últimas semanas, contudo, a apreciação da divisa americana perdeu fôlego e a queda do dólar chega a 7% apenas nesses primeiros dias de junho, com a moeda negociando abaixo de R$ 5,00 nesta sexta-feira.
Cada vez mais gestores de recursos têm se posicionado taticamente contra a moeda americana, de olho em uma mudança de rumo cambial.
Márcio Appel, sócio e fundador da Adam Capital, chegou a afirmar nesta semana que enxerga como cenário mais provável o dólar cotado a R$ 4,00 e a Selic, no patamar de 1%.
Passado um período de forte saída de investimento estrangeiro, especialmente de emergentes, e com forte atuação dos bancos centrais mundiais para conter a escalada da crise, a percepção do mercado começou a melhorar, diz Ricardo Kazan, gestor da Novus Capital.
“Após a atuação dos bancos centrais, principalmente do Fed [autoridade monetária americana], o mercado de ações começou a ver que já havia ampla liquidez disponível e que, em algum momento, as economias iriam reagir. A partir de 15 de maio, começamos a ver uma volta de fluxo para os emergentes, com a reabertura das economias e a reprecifi ação dos mercados”, assinala.
O acordo entre os líderes europeus em relação a um pacote de recuperação de gastos fiscais para a União Europeia também animou, diz Kazan, e contribuiu para o enfraquecimento global do dólar.
A Novus vinha mantendo uma posição contra o real e o euro, que foi bastante reduzida. Agora, a gestora está “comprada” (com aposta na alta) na moeda brasileira e “vendida” (com aposta na queda) em peso mexicano.
Kazan frisa, contudo, que o movimento é tático e que as pressões sobre a moeda brasileira prosseguem, especialmente com os juros tão baixos no Brasil e com a perspectiva de um saldo em conta corrente próximo de zero.
A Truxt Investimentos, por sua vez, conta ter capturado boa parte da valorização do dólar ao longo de 2020, mas realizou os ganhos quando a cotação encostou em R$ 5,70, em meados de maio, e hoje está com a posição zerada.
Caso o cenário externo prossiga com as reaberturas das economias em curso, e se não houver uma piora das crises internas, a tendência é que a valorização recente do real prossiga, avalia José Tovar, CEO da gestora.
“Por outro lado, com os juros tão baixos, se tivermos uma piora do ambiente, o dólar volta a subir”, afirma o especialista, citando entre os principais riscos no radar uma segunda onda da pandemia, no fronte global, e uma deterioração da percepção do mercado quanto à política fiscal, no âmbito interno.
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