Ibovespa sobe forte puxado por bancos e ganha impulso de Wall Street na reta final; dólar avança a R$ 5,38
SÃO PAULO – O Ibovespa fechou em forte alta nesta segunda-feira (1) com os investidores em busca de ações que devem se beneficiar da retomada econômica posterior à pandemia do novo coronavírus.
Um impulso extra foi dado pelas bolsas americanas no fim do pregão, pois, após Wall Street passar boa parte da sessão entre perdas e ganhos, o mercado americano demonstrou perto do fechamento que o otimismo não acabou em maio e os papéis de companhias em setores como cruzeiros e hotelaria dispararam.
Apesar de colocarem mais incerteza no cenário, os protestos antirracistas nos Estados Unidos e as manifestações a favor da democracia no Brasil não impactaram as bolsas.
O Ibovespa subiu 1,39% a 88.620 pontos puxado por Vale e bancos. O volume financeiro negociado foi de R$ 24,876 bilhões.
Fora as perspectivas para o cenário macroeconômico, o setor financeiro reflete notícias específicas como a afirmação do presidente da Câmara dos Deputados, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), de que considera difícil qualquer tipo de aumento na carga tributária para compensar a queda de receita pública por causa da pandemia de coronavírus. Existem atualmente projetos no Senado para aumentar o imposto corporativo de bancos, como alíquota da Contribuição Social sobre o Lucro Líquido (CSLL).
“A fala é positiva para bancos, uma vez que tais aumentos impactam diretamente o valor dos mesmo. Um aumento de 5% a 20% na CSLL poderia diminuir o valuation dos bancos em até 27%”, destaca a XP Investimentos.
Já o dólar comercial teve alta de 0,82%, a R$ 5,3813 na compra e R$ 5,3843 na venda. O dólar futuro para julho avança 0,88% a R$ 5,39 no after-market.
No mercado de juros futuros, o DI para janeiro de 2022 teve alta de um ponto-base a 3,14%, o DI para janeiro de 2023 caiu um ponto-base a 4,22% e o DI para janeiro de 2025 recuou um ponto-base a 5,96%.
Entre os indicadores, a projeção do PIB de 2020 passou de queda de 5,89% para baixa de 6,25%, apontou o Relatório Focus. Para 2021, a estimativa de crescimento de 3,50% para o PIB foi mantida.
A expectativa dos economistas é de que, ao final de 2020, a Selic seja de 2,25% ao ano, mesma projeção da semana passada.
As projeções para a inflação, medida pelo IPCA (Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo), caíram de 1,57% para 1,55% em 2020. Para 2021, a projeção caiu de 3,14% para 3,10%.
Já a projeção para o dólar foi mantida em R$ 5,40. Para o ano que vem, a estimativa foi de R$ 5,03 para R$ 5,08.
Também no radar dos mercados, está a tensão entre EUA e China: autoridades chinesas disseram a empresas para interromperem a importação de alguns produtos agrícolas americanos, aumentando o risco de ampliar as tensões entre os dois países.
Na sexta-feira, o presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, adotou um tom duro contra a China, mas não mencionou a fase 1 do acordo comercial, o que deu alívio aos mercados.
Manifestações
Segundo Bruno Marques, gestor da XP Asset, os protestos contra a morte de George Floyd nos EUA só teriam algum efeito imediato na bolsa de Nova York se estivessem provocando paralisação da atividade econômica, algo que não tem ocorrido por enquanto.
O efeito de longo prazo, contudo, pode ser um fortalecimento do candidato Democrata Joe Biden, nas eleições de 2020, uma vez que o brutal assassinato por policiais de um homem negro desarmado prejudica o discurso do atual presidente Donald Trump.
Marques entende que demandas por inclusão social e redução da desigualdade beneficiam o Partido Democrata e vê essas questões bastante afloradas neste período de pandemia, em que ficou claro o abismo de condições entre os mais ricos e os mais pobres. “O impacto é mais de longo prazo, mas se houver eleição de um Democrata, que consiga ganhar o controle do Senado, os EUA passarão por transformações relevantes nesse ponto.”
Por outro lado, o gestor avalia que se a violência dos protestos aumentar muito isso pode novamente fortalecer Trump.
Panorama político
A atenção política em Brasília se divide entre o avanço das investigações do inquérito do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) que apura fake news, o aumento das manifestações e o avanço do coronavírus no país.
No final de semana, diversas cidades fizeram manifestações defendendo a democracia após ataques do presidente Jair Bolsonaro às instituições. Por outro lado, no domingo, o presidente esteve presente em uma manifestação, em Brasília, em que parte dos integrantes atacava o STF. O inquérito das fake news levou a uma série de buscas e apreensões que atingiram aliados bolsonaristas.
Em meio a essa tensão política, o novo coronavírus segue avançando no país. O Brasil já contabiliza 514.849 casos e 29.314 mortes causadas pela Covid-19.
Noticiário corporativo
As restrições de mobilidade causadas pela pandemia do coronavírus se intensificaram em meados de março, o que atingiu o resultado das empresas do setor aéreo.
A fabricante de aeronaves Embraer registrou um prejuízo líquido de R$ 1,276 bilhão no primeiro trimestre do ano, ante R$ 160,8 milhões em igual período do ano passado. Já o prejuízo ajustado foi de R$ 433,6 milhões, ante R$ 229,9 milhões entre janeiro e março de 2019.
O Ebitda ficou negativo em R$ 209,1 milhões, ante negativo em R$ 53,7 milhões no comparativo anual.
A companhia também negocia com BNDES e bancos privados um financiamento de R$ 3,3 bilhões, segundo reportagem do jornal “Valor Econômico”. Os recursos, que podem ser liberados ainda em junho, serão usados para atender demanda de jatos executivos e comerciais da empresa para os próximos meses.
Maiores altas
AtivoVariação %Valor (R$)GOLL48.5619313.06VVAR38.3064513.43MULT37.6848722.28CVCB37.6388915.5IGTA37.5483335.05
Maiores baixas
AtivoVariação %Valor (R$)BEEF3-2.3151613.08RENT3-2.2609137.61EGIE3-1.9335141.59CPFE3-1.6434131.72ENGI11-1.4736846.8
Por sua vez, a Latam, que entrou com pedido de proteção contra falência nos Estados Unidos na semana passada, anunciou que registrou um prejuízo líquido de US$ 2,12 bilhões no primeiro trimestre do ano, o equivalente a R$ 11,5 bilhões. Em igual período de 2019, o prejuízo foi de US$ 60 milhões.
A maior parte desse prejuízo, segundo a empresa, foi causado por um ajuste na conta de ganhos de capital da empresa. A mudança está relacionada às perdas causadas pelo coronavírus e possuem efeito apenas contábil. A empresa não possui ações negociadas no Brasil.
Já a Cosan registrou no primeiro trimestre do ano um lucro líquido de R$ 102,2 milhões, queda de 74,2% na comparação com igual período do ano passado.
O Ebitda no período foi de R$ 1,98 bilhão, alta de 36,7%.
Fora dos balanços, a Petrobras levantou R$ 676,8 milhões com a venda de sua participação em sete campos terrestres de petróleo no Rio Grande do Norte (RN). A venda foi feita à 3R Petroleum.
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